European markets in the third quarter of 2026
European equity markets ended the third quarter of 2026 slightly lower, after setting records in August. The larger moves were elsewhere: government bond yields rose sharply in Europe and the United States, and oil prices surged in September. This report sets out what moved, by how much, and what the sources say moved it, using closing data for 30 September 2026.
Key takeaways
- The STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.1% in the quarter after a record close of 660.51 on 11 August. It is up 7.2% for the year.
- Europe lagged the United States: the S&P 500 rose 2.0% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.5%. Among the major European indices, only the DAX (+0.8%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.0%) gained.
- Bonds moved far more than shares. Ten-year yields rose by 0.63 to 0.85 percentage points, and the US ten-year yield reached its highest level since 2007.
- France was the weak spot: the CAC 40 fell 5.2%, and the gap between French and German ten-year yields reached 1.20 percentage points, the widest since 2012.
- European defence stocks rose: the STOXX Europe Targeted Defence index gained about 3.6% in the quarter, although it fell 5.9% in September.
Equities: a record, then a reversal
| Index | 30 June 2026 | 30 September 2026 | Third quarter | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 641.73 | 634.89 | −1.1% | +7.2% |
| EURO STOXX 50 | 6,328.09 | 6,269.02 | −0.9% | +11.0% (total return, STOXX) |
| DAX | 24,995.81 | 25,199.19 | +0.8% | +2.9% (STOXX) |
| CAC 40 | 8,403.99 | 7,964.51 | −5.2% | −2.3% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,497.12 | 10,606.00 | +1.0% | +6.8% |
| SMI | 14,193.92 | 13,830.34 | −2.6% | +4.2% |
| S&P 500 | 7,499.36 | 7,651.54 | +2.0% | +11.8% (AP) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,213.72 | 26,861.06 | +2.5% | +15.6% (AP) |
The quarter had two halves. In July, European indices rose for a fourth consecutive month while US shares slipped, as investors moved away from the most expensive sectors, including technology, according to STOXX. In August, better-than-expected results from US technology companies outweighed concerns about rising bond yields and tensions in the Persian Gulf. The STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX 50 closed at records on 11 August (660.51 and 6,551.22), and the DAX on 28 August (26,569.99).
September reversed most of it. Including dividends, the STOXX Europe 600 lost 2.4% in the month and the DAX 4.0%. The CAC 40 closed below 8,000 points on 30 September for the first time since 20 May. Globally, the MSCI World index returned 2.0% in US dollars over the quarter, including dividends, and 12.1% in the year to date.
The full report
For subscribers
The full report continues with 6 more sections, with all tables and the data behind them as CSV files for Excel. It is part of the General Assets Research Group subscription:
- Bonds: the largest moves of the quarter
- Currencies and oil
- European defence stocks
- Volatility stayed contained
- What moved markets
- In summary
Sources
- STOXX, index data for the STOXX Europe 600, EURO STOXX 50, DAX and VSTOXX, and monthly index news for June to September 2026. STOXX Europe 600; EURO STOXX 50; September 2026; August 2026; July 2026; June 2026
- Euronext, CAC 40 historical prices. Euronext
- dpa-AFX market reports of 30 June and 30 September 2026 (Europe, Frankfurt, London, Zurich). Europe, 30 September; Frankfurt, 30 September; Europe, 30 June
- FTSE Russell, FTSE 100 close of 31 December 2025. Mondo Visione
- AP, US stock indexes on 30 September 2026. AP
- CNBC: Saudi East–West pipeline (11 September 2026), US Treasury yields (23 September 2026), the third quarter in markets (1 October 2026). Pipeline; Yields; Third quarter; Tariffs
- ECB, account of the monetary policy meeting of 9 and 10 September 2026; US Federal Reserve, press release of 16 September 2026. ECB; Federal Reserve
- BFM Bourse, report of 30 September 2026 on the CAC 40 and French government bonds. BFM Bourse
- MSCI, MSCI World index factsheet, 30 September 2026. MSCI
- Deutsche Bundesbank, yields on German government securities, residual maturities of two and ten years. Bundesbank
- US Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, 2026. US Treasury
- Bank of England, nominal par yield, ten years. Bank of England
- ECB, euro foreign exchange reference rates. ECB
- US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price FOB, daily, and "Today in Energy" of 5 October 2026 on third-quarter oil prices. Spot prices; Today in Energy
- Cboe, VIX index historical data. Cboe