General Assets
Defence and security

Europe's rearmament: from announcements to orders

Published Reading time approx. 14 minutes By General Assets Research Group

In March 2025 the European Commission presented a plan it said could mobilise up to EUR 800 billion for defence, and in June 2025 NATO allies agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035. Nineteen months later, this report follows those announcements through to what has been legislated, what has been paid out and what industry is building, using official data available on 9 October 2026. It describes; it does not recommend.

Key takeaways

  • EU member states spent EUR 418 billion on defence in 2025, 20% more than in 2024 and 2.2% of GDP, and are expected to spend EUR 454 billion in 2026 (European Defence Agency).
  • NATO estimates that its European members and Canada will spend 2.53% of GDP on core defence in 2026. Five allies are above the 3.5% target set for 2035: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Greece.
  • The EU's EUR 150 billion SAFE loan programme made its first payment on 29 May 2026, later than the March date the Commission had expected. Announced payments to eight countries add up to about EUR 11.7 billion.
  • Germany plans EUR 139.6 billion of defence spending in 2027, France EUR 63.3 billion in 2027 under its updated military programming law, and the United Kingdom 2.7% of GDP by the end of the decade.
  • Cooperation lags the targets: 24% of EU equipment purchases were collaborative in 2025, against a 35% benchmark. The European Court of Auditors warns that bottlenecks in materials, components and skilled staff can make extra money hard to spend.

What was announced

On 4 March 2025, the President of the European Commission presented ReArm Europe, a plan described as "close to EUR 800 billion". Most of that figure was not EU money. The Commission estimated that letting member states spend an extra 1.5% of GDP on defence for four years without breaching EU fiscal rules could create "close to EUR 650 billion" of room; the rest was SAFE, a new EUR 150 billion loan instrument, plus contributions from the EU budget and the European Investment Bank. On 19 March 2025 the plan was relaunched as ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030, together with a White Paper on European defence listing priority capabilities, from air and missile defence and artillery to drones, military mobility and cyber defence.

At their summit in The Hague on 25 June 2025, NATO allies agreed to spend 5% of GDP a year on defence and security by 2035: at least 3.5% on core defence as NATO defines it, and up to 1.5% on related spending such as infrastructure and resilience. Allies are to submit annual plans, and the trajectory will be reviewed in 2029. At the Ankara summit on 8 July 2026, allies announced "more than $50 billion in new procurements" and committed to expand manufacturing capacity; they set no new spending target.

The full report

For subscribers

The full report continues with 9 more sections, with all tables and the data behind them as CSV files for Excel. It is part of the General Assets Research Group subscription:

  • Spending: what the figures show
  • The EU's fiscal escape clause
  • SAFE: from allocations to payments
  • EDIP and the next EU budget
  • National plans
  • Industry: capacity and orders
  • What holds it back
  • Milestones the institutions have set
  • In summary

Subscription details

Sources

  1. European Commission, press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package (4 March 2025); White Paper for European Defence and ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 (19 March 2025); Readiness Roadmap 2030. 4 March 2025; White Paper; Roadmap
  2. NATO, The Hague Summit Declaration (25 June 2025) and Ankara Summit Declaration (8 July 2026). The Hague; Ankara
  3. NATO, Defence Investment of NATO Countries (2014–2026), July 2026; Secretary General's Annual Report 2025 (March 2026). July 2026; Annual Report
  4. European Defence Agency, defence data 2025–2026 (16 July 2026). News release; Report
  5. SIPRI, trends in world military expenditure, 2025 (27 April 2026) and trends in international arms transfers, 2025 (9 March 2026). Military expenditure; Arms transfers
  6. European Court of Auditors, Review 01/2026 on EU defence. ECA
  7. Council of the EU, activation of the national escape clause for 15 member states (8 July 2025), Germany (10 October 2025), Austria (17 February 2026) and Spain (12 June 2026); Commission recommendation on Italy, Council document 14247/26 (8 October 2026). July 2025; Germany; Austria; Spain; Italy
  8. European Commission, SAFE: overview; approvals of 15 January, 26 January and 26 March 2026; payments to Poland (29 May 2026), Cyprus (18 June), Lithuania (29 June), Greece (24 July), Estonia (12 August), Bulgaria, Latvia and Romania (31 August). SAFE; 15 January; 26 January; 26 March; Poland; Cyprus; Lithuania; Greece; Estonia; Bulgaria, Latvia, Romania
  9. Euronews, Hungary cuts EU defence loan request (25 September 2026). Euronews
  10. European Commission, EDIP; first EDIP call (17 June 2026); five European Defence Projects of Common Interest (28 September 2026); EU budget 2028–2034 proposal. EDIP; First call; Projects; EU budget
  11. Deutscher Bundestag, first reading of the 2027 defence budget (September 2026); Federal Ministry of Finance, 2027 draft budget and financial plan to 2030 (6 July 2026). Bundestag; Ministry of Finance
  12. France, Law no. 2026-791 of 16 August 2026 updating the military programming law for 2024–2030; Senate summary. Law; Senate
  13. UK Ministry of Defence, The Defence Investment Plan (30 June 2026). GOV.UK
  14. National plans: Poland, 2026 budget (28 August 2025) and 2027 draft budget (28 August 2026); Lithuania, President's Office (17 January 2025) and Ministry of National Defence (11 December 2025); Latvia, LSM (26 March 2026); Estonia, Ministry of Defence; Sweden, Government Offices (19 June 2025); Denmark, Ministry of Defence (19 February 2025); Spain, La Moncloa (22 April 2025). Poland 2026; Poland 2027; Lithuania 2026–2030; Lithuania 2026; Latvia; Estonia; Sweden; Denmark; Spain
  15. Reuters, Italy scales back defence spending increase in new budget plan (October 2026), via Global Banking & Finance Review. Reuters
  16. European Commission, ASAP (15 March 2024); study on skills and perceptions of the EU defence industry (30 April 2026); EU Perspectives, report of 15 April 2026 on Commissioner Kubilius's remarks. ASAP; Skills study; EU Perspectives
  17. Rheinmetall, opening of the Unterlüß plant (5 September 2025) and Annual Report 2025 (11 March 2026); Kongsberg, Belgium orders NASAMS (29 September 2026). Unterlüß; Annual Report; Kongsberg
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